HotRolled Coils Price Trend and Forecast

North America 

During the third quarter of 2022,the Hot-RolledCoil prices witnessed a downward trend in the US market owing to thelower raw material costs. According to market participants, falling feedstock
prices were added to the downward pressure. The ongoing decline in Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) pricing in the United States (US) continued till September, though more significant buys and mill resistance appear to be influencing the market to establish a floor price. Furthermore, buyers were not restocking HRC in warehouses and stated that they could purchase additional tonnes based on
demand. Market participants were divided on whether HRC pricing had reached a bottom, with many pointing to the August scrap trade as a leading indicator.
According to manufacturers, most buyers are wary of placing large orders. They
were concerned about further price reductions. Thus, the discussions for HR
Coil (3 mm) prices for Ex-US Midwest (USA) settled at USD 868/MT. 

Asia Pacific 

Hot-Rolled Coil prices in theAsian market fell in the third quarter of 2022 due to a declining demand outlook. According to buyers, Indian mills increased their offers in mid-August due to deal closures in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. According to market participants, downstream manufacturers have shown limited interest in Indian Hot Rolled Coil quotations. As a result, Indian manufacturers have been hesitant to cite low figures and solicit customer quotations. Indian mills were hesitant to withdraw offers despite low demand in Europe, Turkey, and Vietnam. Lower
exports contribute to inventory build-up, forcing steel manufacturers to adjust
production accordingly. The monsoon season added to the country's limited
demand for steel. Automobile manufacturers have recently reduced casting orders due to massive inventory due to poor car sales over the last three months.
Therefore, the HR Coil (2 mm) prices for Ex Mumbai (India) are fixed at INR
57150/MT. 

Europe 

Hot-Rolled Coil prices havedeclined in the European market during the third quarter of 2022 owing to a
sluggish demand outlook. According to market participants, despite producers
pushing for higher levels, buyers' high inventories and weak demand from
end-user sectors remain significant issues. European HRC buyers continued to be
cautious, with only small tonnages recently traded in the spot market. Several
large stockholders claim they have postponed restocking for several weeks
because their inventories have been still relatively high, despite a low order
intake from end users. Producers have been attempting to secure price increases
due to high costs since the beginning of September, but poor demand has
hampered price growth. The quotations were ineffective; buyers refused to pay
and could not pass the increase downstream. However, most Italian buyers were
uninterested in domestic HRC bookings and preferred imported alternatives.
Thus, HR Coil (3 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr (Germany) settled at USD 848/MT. 

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