Galvanized Plain Sheet Prices Trend and Forecast

North America

During the third quarter of 2023,the GalvanizedPlain Sheet prices in the US market increased, primarily due to limitedinventories and the strong downstream automotive industry. After a slow start following the New Year's holiday, demand began to pick up moderately, leading to increased customer inquiries and shipments at service centers. However, buyers were hesitant to stock up on steel products, given the short lead times. The January trade was dominated by mills with larger appetites, leading to increased regional competition. As flat-rolled steelmakers increased their purchasing programs, prime-grade prices rose. The combination of tight supply, rising demand, and a surge in export markets pushed prices higher. Mills booked slightly more than they could produce, implying that deliveries might be delayed until May. Some mills reportedly postponed new bookings while more made bookings for May. Confirmed orders were safeguarded until fully shipped. When mills announced a price increase, it was immediately effective on new orders. Steel mills succeeded in raising prices by USD 400/MT through a series of increases since the end of November. As a result, Hot Dipped Galvanised Sheet (1 mm) prices for Ex Midwest settled at USD 1301/MT.

Asia Pacific

In the Chinese market, theGalvanized Plain Sheet prices showcased an upward momentum in the first quarter of 2023 due to strong downstream automotive inquiries and sufficient inventory. After the Spring Festival holiday, the steel market strengthened, and steel prices continued to rise, indicating a promising start. Coking enterprises resumed relatively smoothly, and steel mills continued to procure on demand. Steel mills halted production for maintenance due to high costs, and output continued to fall, which helped push up steel prices. However, downstream inquiries remained low, and spot market transactions weakened significantly as the wait-and-see sentiment prevailed among traders. Domestic Galvanized Plain Sheet prices in China increased in March due to increased trade activity and eased inventory pressure. Major city inventory decreased while transactions increased significantly due to a favorable macroeconomic environment and falling inventory. Poor profits and rising upstream ColdRolled Coil Prices suppressed demand from terminals initially, butlater, the eased supply pressure and increased terminal demand led to a decline in HDG inventory. As a result, the Hot Dipped Galvanised Sheet (1 mm) prices for Ex Shandong settled at USD 787/MT.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2023, theGalvanized Plain Sheet prices in Germany had risen due to strong order books at local mills, extended lead times, and limited imports. The price increase was supported by a positive market revival in Asia, production cuts across Europe, high energy costs, and a lack of competitive imports. However, negative factors such as reduced end-user demand and consumer resistance to higher prices were observed. The technical issues at Tata Steel's cold-rolling mill in the Netherlands, which caused the mill to declare force majeure, had also contributed to the market's bullish mood. Distributors prioritized purchasing smaller lots of coils as end-user demand remained stable, and consumers rejected high prices. Due to long lead times and uncertainty regarding potential changes in safeguard measures and the sustainability of the upward trend through the summer, European buyers were unable to replace domestic supply with imports. As a ripple effect, the Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr (Germany) settled at USD 1073/MT at the end of March.

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